War on the Rocks: "Europeans have embarked on a process of self-vassalization, in which they sacrifice much of their independence in foreign policy to Washington in return for protection"

AndreasWinsnes

Jul 1

A very interesting article in War on the Rocks:

THE ART OF VASSALIZATION: HOW RUSSIA'S WAR ON UKRAINE HAS TRANSFORMED TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS

"American leadership remains necessary in Europe because Europeans remain incapable of leading themselves." (…)

"The growing dominance of the United States within the NATO alliance is evident in virtually every area of national strength. … In 2008 the E.U.'s economy was somewhat larger than America's: $16.2 trillion versus $14.7 trillion. By 2022, the U.S. economy had grown to $25 trillion, whereas the European Union and the United Kingdom together had only reached $19.8 trillion. America's economy is now nearly one-third bigger than both, and more than 50 percent larger than the European Union without the United Kingdom." (…)

"The large U.S. tech companies — the 'big five' of Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook), and Microsoft — are now close to dominating the tech landscape in Europe as they do in the United States." (…)

"As Liana Fix of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations notes, American leadership "has been almost too successful for its own good, leaving Europeans no incentive to develop leadership on their own."" (…)

"Germany missed NATO's 2 percent of GDP spending target in 2022 and is not expected to meet it in 2023 either. Meanwhile, the Social Democrat (SDP) led government clearly feels very comfortable under Washington's wing." (…)

"Even as the Russian invasion has spurred real increases in European defense spending, the structure of that spending means that it will actually create greater dependence on the United States. European policymakers now see EU or transnational European procurement programs as too time-consuming and complex. The focus is on quickly filling capability gaps. The German government, for example, has decided to buy off-the-shelf, mainly American, equipment including the F-35 and the Chinook heavy transport helicopter. Poland recently decided to buy Abrams tanks from the United States, as well as tanks and howitzers from South Korea as it rapidly builds up its army. This will create dependencies that will last for decades." (…)

"European allies have a role in this geo-economic struggle with China, but it is not, as during the Cold War, to become rich and contribute to the military defense of the central front. To the contrary, their key role from a U.S. perspective is to support U.S. strategic industrial policy and to help ensure American technological dominance vis-à-vis China. They can do so by acquiescing to U.S. industrial policy and by circumscribing their economic relations with China according to American concepts of strategic technologies."

"As these policies have the potential to reduce economic growth in Europe, cause (further) deindustrialization, or even deny Europeans dominant positions in key industries of the future, they might be expected to generate serious opposition throughout the European Union. And to some degree, they have. A debate rages in the European Union and the United Kingdom about whether Europeans need to follow U.S. policy on China or whether they can strike out on their own."

"… Many administration officials, in various author interviews since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, have expressed the view that Europeans may whine and complain, but that their increasing security dependence on the United States means that they will mostly accept economic policies framed as part of America's global security role."

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