SCMP:
China needs to rethink its relationship with Russia in 2023
No newspaper would have printed the above article if its editors understood the reality of the Ukraine War after the drone attacks on Russia's nuclear triad: Engels airbase. If this had happened during the Cold War, it would have immediately triggered WW3, a nuclear holocaust that would have also destroyed China. The article in SCMP is therefore surprisingly out of touch with reality (almost as if the editors are "bourgeoisie" or neoliberal/oligarchic, almost as if they are dreaming of returning to the unipolar era of 1991-2017, in the naive hope that China and the US can almost become "friends" again or at least business partners only engaging in strategic competition). They should instead ask: how can we prevent unhinged woke neocons in new globalist NATO from triggering a nuclear war in Ukraine. Post-Engels they should ask: how are we still alive and not incinerated in a nuclear holocaust?
However, if you happen to be a 100% old-school conservative/traditionalist, then it's a silver lining if Beijing stops cooperating with Moscow, because it will force the Russian military to air burst nuke woke Big Tech in order to prevent that NATO creates AI robots that will destroy Russia in 2035 or 2045. This will force Washington to nuke Shenzhen, so that China doesn't become the last man standing after the US and Russia have destroyed each other in WW3.
If the autocrats in Beijing want to continue their attempt to win Cold War 2, by trying to be the first to reach AI drone biotech supremacy (in 2-3 decades), then it's in the interest of China to give Russia enough support to either secure a stalemate or a victory in Ukraine. This will freeze the conflict and give CPC more time to compete with US Big Tech. In other words, it's actually smart from Beijing's perspective to convince woke neocons/neoliberals that it's also in the interest of NATO+ to stabilize the front in Eastern Europe, a bit like it was during the first Cold War, because US coastal states have a good chance of winning Cold War 2, but this presupposes that the maniacs in NATO understand that a cold war is a marathon, not a sprint toward nuclear annihilation.
On the other hand, if China's goal is to let Russia deplete NATO's weapons, in Ukraine, before PLA attacks Taiwan, well, then perhaps things are basically going okay for China and Russia. NATO is partially bogged down in Ukraine, making it easier for Xi to attack Taiwan in 2023 or 2024, if that is the master plan.
Neocons probably dream of first installing a pro-Western puppet government in Moscow, then overthrow autocratic regimes in central Asia, so that China is surrounded by the neoliberal corporate world. A high-tech version of the British Empire.
The McMafia in Washington is never going to trust Beijing unless Xi or another Chinese president bows down and kisses the ring of the US emperor, in public. Only that will restore the global illusion of the benign "liberal" world order. But that ain't gonna happen. The masquerade is over, the soft gloves are off, and the high-functioning psychopaths in Washington are now going back to ruthlessly and cleverly conquering their enemies, as we Europeans have done since 1492. First they take Moscow, then they sack Beijing, if they win the Taiwan War. Remember Gaddafi in 2011 and Hirohito in 1945. Alternatively, if they are smart and patient, they will probably manage to win CW2 in the same way they won CW1: beating a sanctioned rival great power in a technological arms race.
It's laughable when SCMP prints an article claiming that Russia is increasingly resembling a corpse. Only a decadent individual will make such a claim. Russia is the only state willing to fight the largest military alliance in human history. All kings and emperors through history will respect that. That the Russians are stumbling and making a bloody mess of things in Ukraine is just how they fight. To claim that these "orcs" are weak is like saying that Stalin was unreliable and incompetent because the Russians initially failed when attacking Finland in 1939. It's true however that Russia will either be destroyed by NATO or become subordinate to China if the monsters in Kremlin don't nuke Big Tech. It's therefore in the interest of China to postpone this development until AI robots, cyborgs and biotech have made it possible to neutralize atomic weapons, through hacking and insect-drone assassinations. In the meanwhile China should pray that the Russian orcs don't take seriously what is going to happen if they don't destroy Big Tech in the 2020s.
The psychopaths in Kremlin are monsters. We have known that since Grozny, but it's a neocon narrative when the article in SCMP argues that Russia has been humiliated in Ukraine. This claim is only true if it had been reasonable to expect that a country like Russia could have easily secured a victory in this unprecedented drone war. Military power is based on population size and economic power. Russia has ca 140 million citizens and an economy no larger than Italy. NATO+ has a billion citizens, with the largest economy in the world. America has 335 million citizens, with the most advanced smart weapons and battlefield intelligence, given to Ukraine. NATO has done much to support Ukraine, except send in Western fighter jets, Abrams tanks and deploy tens of thousands of NATO troops, though the Royal Marines and private contractors/mercenaries are on the ground in Ukraine, like they have been deployed in the Iraq War for example. Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe, second to Russia. It has ca 44 million citizens, and it has been trained by NATO, since 2014, in an actual war in Donbas, giving them valuable battlefield experience. It was not reasonable that Russia could or wanted to occupy Ukraine with only 190 000 troops in February, 2022, especially not when the Kremlin had no mobilization plans back then. Nazi Germany needed 1.5 million soldiers to occupy Poland in 1939, a country with an outdated army. If China had only 140 million citizens, the PLA would not have done better than Russia if it had tried to invade Ukraine. The invasion in February 2022 was a reckless gamble nevertheless, full of mistakes, but no worse than all the mistakes done by the US military in the Middle East after 2001.
In fact, if the main plan of Russia and China is to get NATO bogged down in Ukraine, before an attack on Taiwan, then Kremlin has done a great job tempting neocons to fall into the Ukraine quagmire. However, if Kremlin's primary objective is to secure that Russia survives as an independent conservative empire this century, a victory in Ukraine will not help them much if not destroying woke US Big Tech in the 2020s. If the siloviki want to nuke the ultra-"liberal" fourth industrial revolution in the West, there is nothing China can do about it. Beijing can only pray that it doesn't happen. If no atomic war breaks out in 2023, then China needs Russia as an ally, to secure access to resources when the US blockades China after it invades Taiwan. The only other ally of China is Pakistan... So oligarchs in China are engaging in wishful thinking, living in a pipe dream, if thinking that the old globalist relation between China and the US can be repaired. Neocons have China in their crosshair. Taking down Russia is just a stepping stone on their path to destroying their main enemy: China.
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